NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVM SJU
Points 63.9 75.0
Total Points   138.8
Points From 2-Pointers 26.9 42.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.1 19.1
Points From Free Throws 12.9 13.7
Shooting UVM SJU
Field Goals Made 21.5 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.3 62.1
Field Goal % 38.2% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 13.5 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 33.2 42.4
2 Point Shooting % 40.6% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 12.9 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 18.4
Free Throw % 71.9% 74.2%
Ball Control UVM SJU
Rebounds 31.2 42.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 29.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 13.0
Turnovers 9.9 7.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 7.1
Steals 5.0 5.3
Fouls 13.0 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Vermont

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVM SJU
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.5 73.6
% of Possessions with UVM SJU
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 51.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.5% 23.8%
Player Fouled 22.3% 19.0%
Turnover 14.5% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVM SJU
Shot Blocked 11.7% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 34.9%