NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVM UMASS
Points 71.1 68.6
Total Points   139.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 36.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 16.3
Points From Free Throws 12.3 15.4
Shooting UVM UMASS
Field Goals Made 25.6 23.9
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 57.9
Field Goal % 41.8% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 40.6
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 45.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 17.2
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 31.6%
Free Throws Made 12.3 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 20.8
Free Throw % 71.9% 74.3%
Ball Control UVM UMASS
Rebounds 35.0 39.3
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 9.5
Turnovers 8.1 10.3
Blocked Shots 4.9 4.7
Steals 6.6 5.0
Fouls 14.7 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Mass Lowell

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVM UMASS
Total Possessions 70.8
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 69.9
% of Possessions with UVM UMASS
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 20.9%
Player Fouled 19.2% 20.8%
Turnover 11.4% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVM UMASS
Shot Blocked 8.3% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.0% 25.9%