NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVM UNCG
Points 68.3 67.5
Total Points   135.8
Points From 2-Pointers 25.0 28.9
Points From 3-Pointers 29.4 28.8
Points From Free Throws 13.9 9.8
Shooting UVM UNCG
Field Goals Made 22.3 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 52.5 58.7
Field Goal % 42.5% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 12.5 14.5
2 Pointers Attempted 25.2 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 49.5% 44.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 27.2 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 13.9 9.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 13.4
Free Throw % 71.9% 72.8%
Ball Control UVM UNCG
Rebounds 33.5 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 9.6
Turnovers 9.0 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.0
Steals 4.9 5.5
Fouls 12.4 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Vermont

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVM UNCG
Total Possessions 66.1
Effective Scoring Chances 63.8 67.0
% of Possessions with UVM UNCG
2 Point Attempt 34.1% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 36.8% 33.7%
Player Fouled 23.6% 18.7%
Turnover 13.6% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVM UNCG
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 20.2% 26.4%