NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA JMU
Points 64.7 63.0
Total Points   127.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.3 31.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.4 21.4
Points From Free Throws 11.0 10.5
Shooting UVA JMU
Field Goals Made 24.0 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 57.7
Field Goal % 42.3% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 38.6 34.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.0 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 11.0 10.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 15.1
Free Throw % 62.1% 69.7%
Ball Control UVA JMU
Rebounds 35.5 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 10.1
Turnovers 8.3 10.5
Blocked Shots 5.4 2.8
Steals 6.0 5.8
Fouls 11.9 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: James Mad

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA JMU
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.2 66.5
% of Possessions with UVA JMU
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 23.5% 29.8%
Player Fouled 20.0% 17.8%
Turnover 12.4% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA JMU
Shot Blocked 5.0% 9.7%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 27.4%