NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UVA NCST
Points 61.3 63.9
Total Points   125.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.8 34.5
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 18.1
Points From Free Throws 8.8 11.3
Shooting UVA NCST
Field Goals Made 23.2 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.0 57.1
Field Goal % 39.9% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 43.0% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 8.8 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 14.2 15.5
Free Throw % 62.1% 72.6%
Ball Control UVA NCST
Rebounds 34.8 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 9.6
Turnovers 7.8 8.7
Blocked Shots 4.5 3.9
Steals 4.8 5.2
Fouls 12.1 11.4

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UVA NCST
Total Possessions 65.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 66.1
% of Possessions with UVA NCST
2 Point Attempt 52.1% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 25.9%
Player Fouled 17.4% 18.5%
Turnover 11.9% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UVA NCST
Shot Blocked 6.9% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 26.8%