NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCU WIN
Points 73.2 78.6
Total Points   151.8
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 30.5
Points From 3-Pointers 21.0 28.3
Points From Free Throws 13.7 19.8
Shooting CCU WIN
Field Goals Made 26.2 24.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.8 57.5
Field Goal % 44.6% 42.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 28.6
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 28.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.1% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 13.7 19.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.8 28.7
Free Throw % 69.4% 69.3%
Ball Control CCU WIN
Rebounds 37.9 35.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 10.5
Turnovers 12.7 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.7
Steals 5.3 6.6
Fouls 19.0 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Winthrop

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCU WIN
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 74.7
% of Possessions with CCU WIN
2 Point Attempt 42.6% 33.4%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 33.8%
Player Fouled 20.7% 25.8%
Turnover 17.3% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCU WIN
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 29.5% 27.8%