NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCU APP
Points 64.5 83.6
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 44.9
Points From 3-Pointers 17.3 25.5
Points From Free Throws 9.6 13.2
Shooting CCU APP
Field Goals Made 24.6 31.0
Field Goals Attempted 66.6 66.3
Field Goal % 36.9% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 22.5
2 Pointers Attempted 47.9 41.0
2 Point Shooting % 39.3% 54.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 25.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 9.6 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 13.8 18.9
Free Throw % 69.4% 69.5%
Ball Control CCU APP
Rebounds 38.0 44.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 33.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 11.0
Turnovers 10.7 7.5
Blocked Shots 1.9 6.6
Steals 5.1 6.9
Fouls 13.6 11.3

Playing Style Advantage: Coastal Car

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCU APP
Total Possessions 74.4
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 77.9
% of Possessions with CCU APP
2 Point Attempt 54.8% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 29.3%
Player Fouled 15.2% 18.2%
Turnover 14.3% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCU APP
Shot Blocked 10.1% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 28.4%