NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CCU ARST
Points 74.1 84.6
Total Points   158.8
Points From 2-Pointers 44.1 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 16.6 35.7
Points From Free Throws 13.4 14.9
Shooting CCU ARST
Field Goals Made 27.6 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 61.6 67.8
Field Goal % 44.8% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 22.1 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 45.7 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 52.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 11.9
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 35.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 13.4 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 21.3
Free Throw % 69.4% 70.2%
Ball Control CCU ARST
Rebounds 37.5 41.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 14.2
Turnovers 10.2 7.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.0
Steals 4.5 6.3
Fouls 13.4 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Coastal Car

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CCU ARST
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 80.7
% of Possessions with CCU ARST
2 Point Attempt 53.8% 36.3%
3 Point Attempt 18.7% 39.8%
Player Fouled 19.5% 18.1%
Turnover 13.9% 9.6%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CCU ARST
Shot Blocked 7.5% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 33.5%