NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU WMU
Points 68.5 68.5
Total Points   136.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 32.1
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 24.4
Points From Free Throws 11.9 12.0
Shooting CMU WMU
Field Goals Made 25.0 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 62.4
Field Goal % 41.0% 38.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 39.0 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 45.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 27.0
3 Point Shooting % 29.7% 30.1%
Free Throws Made 11.9 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 19.6
Free Throw % 67.1% 61.5%
Ball Control CMU WMU
Rebounds 37.9 43.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 15.9
Turnovers 9.4 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.2
Steals 5.5 4.1
Fouls 14.4 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: W Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU WMU
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 72.0 75.6
% of Possessions with CMU WMU
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 31.0%
Player Fouled 20.1% 20.4%
Turnover 13.4% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU WMU
Shot Blocked 5.1% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 37.4%