NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU NIU
Points 69.5 68.6
Total Points   138.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 31.4
Points From 3-Pointers 20.9 22.7
Points From Free Throws 13.4 14.5
Shooting CMU NIU
Field Goals Made 24.6 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 59.1
Field Goal % 40.1% 39.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 15.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.5 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 25.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 29.8%
Free Throws Made 13.4 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 21.6
Free Throw % 67.1% 67.4%
Ball Control CMU NIU
Rebounds 39.3 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 28.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 12.1
Turnovers 9.2 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.9
Steals 5.4 3.9
Fouls 15.8 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU NIU
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.0 72.5
% of Possessions with CMU NIU
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 30.2%
Player Fouled 20.1% 22.4%
Turnover 13.0% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 7.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU NIU
Shot Blocked 8.5% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 30.4%