NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CMU XAV
Points 64.7 79.1
Total Points   143.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.7 39.8
Points From 3-Pointers 16.5 22.1
Points From Free Throws 10.6 17.3
Shooting CMU XAV
Field Goals Made 24.3 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 63.3
Field Goal % 39.4% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.0 40.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.9% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 22.6
3 Point Shooting % 27.7% 32.6%
Free Throws Made 10.6 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 22.8
Free Throw % 67.1% 75.8%
Ball Control CMU XAV
Rebounds 34.6 44.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 30.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 13.9
Turnovers 10.5 8.9
Blocked Shots 4.7 3.9
Steals 4.7 5.8
Fouls 15.3 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CMU XAV
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.2 77.0
% of Possessions with CMU XAV
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 25.7%
Player Fouled 18.6% 21.3%
Turnover 14.6% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CMU XAV
Shot Blocked 6.3% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 35.9%