NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NICH IDST
Points 70.0 72.5
Total Points   142.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.5 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 18.7
Points From Free Throws 15.0 16.2
Shooting NICH IDST
Field Goals Made 24.3 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 52.7 55.8
Field Goal % 46.0% 44.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.0% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 15.8 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 41.3% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 15.0 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 23.1
Free Throw % 72.4% 70.0%
Ball Control NICH IDST
Rebounds 32.2 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.3 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 10.4
Turnovers 12.1 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.2
Steals 6.2 6.8
Fouls 17.9 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NICH IDST
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 65.1 70.1
% of Possessions with NICH IDST
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 20.0% 25.6%
Player Fouled 21.7% 25.9%
Turnover 17.4% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NICH IDST
Shot Blocked 7.6% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.0% 29.9%