NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EKY RAD
Points 75.4 71.2
Total Points   146.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.8 37.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.1 21.3
Points From Free Throws 12.5 12.4
Shooting EKY RAD
Field Goals Made 27.6 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 63.8 64.8
Field Goal % 43.3% 39.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 41.5 46.2
2 Point Shooting % 47.9% 40.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.3 18.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 38.0%
Free Throws Made 12.5 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 16.8
Free Throw % 69.3% 73.7%
Ball Control EKY RAD
Rebounds 42.0 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 14.2 12.9
Turnovers 8.4 7.9
Blocked Shots 5.4 3.0
Steals 3.6 4.7
Fouls 12.4 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EKY RAD
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 75.2 74.4
% of Possessions with EKY RAD
2 Point Attempt 49.0% 54.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.3% 22.1%
Player Fouled 19.3% 17.8%
Turnover 12.1% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 5.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken EKY RAD
Shot Blocked 4.7% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 36.2% 31.8%