NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EKY MURR
Points 71.8 72.2
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 38.5
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 20.3
Points From Free Throws 10.9 13.4
Shooting EKY MURR
Field Goals Made 26.3 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 61.6
Field Goal % 45.1% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.3 43.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 10.9 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 19.5
Free Throw % 69.3% 68.9%
Ball Control EKY MURR
Rebounds 37.3 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 11.1
Turnovers 10.2 7.2
Blocked Shots 5.4 2.6
Steals 3.8 5.6
Fouls 13.4 13.2

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EKY MURR
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 72.4
% of Possessions with EKY MURR
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 52.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 22.5%
Player Fouled 19.2% 19.6%
Turnover 14.9% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken EKY MURR
Shot Blocked 4.3% 9.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 28.8%