NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EKY TNST
Points 76.0 69.2
Total Points   145.2
Points From 2-Pointers 38.3 33.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 18.2
Points From Free Throws 18.3 17.1
Shooting EKY TNST
Field Goals Made 25.6 23.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 60.1
Field Goal % 43.7% 38.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 16.9
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 42.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 40.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 18.3 17.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 18.3 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 26.4 22.5
Free Throw % 69.3% 76.1%
Ball Control EKY TNST
Rebounds 41.4 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.2 11.0
Turnovers 10.3 10.6
Blocked Shots 7.0 3.1
Steals 5.6 5.6
Fouls 15.3 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EKY TNST
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 75.2 72.7
% of Possessions with EKY TNST
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 49.1%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 20.6%
Player Fouled 23.7% 21.1%
Turnover 14.2% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 7.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken EKY TNST
Shot Blocked 5.3% 12.1%
Offensive Rebound 34.9% 28.1%