NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring EKY USC
Points 69.1 80.3
Total Points   149.4
Points From 2-Pointers 31.6 41.8
Points From 3-Pointers 24.7 22.9
Points From Free Throws 12.8 15.6
Shooting EKY USC
Field Goals Made 24.1 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.6 63.8
Field Goal % 38.4% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 15.8 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 40.6 44.7
2 Point Shooting % 39.0% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 39.9%
Free Throws Made 12.8 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 22.5
Free Throw % 69.3% 69.5%
Ball Control EKY USC
Rebounds 38.1 41.9
Rebounds - Defensive 26.2 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 12.6
Turnovers 11.5 8.9
Blocked Shots 5.0 5.1
Steals 4.8 7.3
Fouls 15.1 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats EKY USC
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.7 77.0
% of Possessions with EKY USC
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 21.8%
Player Fouled 18.3% 20.7%
Turnover 15.7% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken EKY USC
Shot Blocked 8.2% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 29.0% 32.5%