NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GW SLU
Points 82.3 81.0
Total Points   163.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 31.8 28.1
Points From Free Throws 16.5 13.6
Shooting GW SLU
Field Goals Made 27.6 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 58.9 63.2
Field Goal % 46.8% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 31.3 39.3
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 10.6 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 27.6 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 39.2%
Free Throws Made 16.5 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 18.1
Free Throw % 75.4% 75.1%
Ball Control GW SLU
Rebounds 34.7 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 9.4
Turnovers 9.0 8.7
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.4
Steals 5.5 5.5
Fouls 13.7 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Saint Louis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GW SLU
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 73.6
% of Possessions with GW SLU
2 Point Attempt 38.1% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 33.7% 28.5%
Player Fouled 20.0% 18.8%
Turnover 12.3% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken GW SLU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 25.9%