NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GW STJOE
Points 73.2 82.3
Total Points   155.5
Points From 2-Pointers 32.1 37.1
Points From 3-Pointers 27.8 34.5
Points From Free Throws 13.3 10.7
Shooting GW STJOE
Field Goals Made 25.3 30.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 66.6
Field Goal % 42.3% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 33.0 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 48.7% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 26.9 30.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 13.3 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.6 14.9
Free Throw % 75.4% 71.9%
Ball Control GW STJOE
Rebounds 35.9 39.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.5 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 10.9
Turnovers 11.0 8.4
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.4
Steals 5.5 6.8
Fouls 12.4 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: St Josephs

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GW STJOE
Total Possessions 72.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 75.2
% of Possessions with GW STJOE
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 41.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.4% 36.2%
Player Fouled 16.9% 17.0%
Turnover 15.2% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken GW STJOE
Shot Blocked 6.8% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 28.4%