NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VAN VCU
Points 61.8 73.6
Total Points   135.4
Points From 2-Pointers 30.2 30.2
Points From 3-Pointers 17.3 30.5
Points From Free Throws 14.3 12.9
Shooting VAN VCU
Field Goals Made 20.9 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 55.8
Field Goal % 36.5% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.1 15.1
2 Pointers Attempted 34.5 29.5
2 Point Shooting % 43.7% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 25.5% 38.7%
Free Throws Made 14.3 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 16.7
Free Throw % 70.7% 77.2%
Ball Control VAN VCU
Rebounds 34.1 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 8.6
Turnovers 8.9 10.4
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.2
Steals 6.1 4.9
Fouls 13.0 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: VCU

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VAN VCU
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 66.3
% of Possessions with VAN VCU
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 38.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 33.9%
Player Fouled 21.5% 19.2%
Turnover 13.0% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 7.2% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken VAN VCU
Shot Blocked 5.8% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 26.5%