NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BYU BSU
Points 74.8 72.3
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.4 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 27.2 21.4
Points From Free Throws 12.1 15.4
Shooting BYU BSU
Field Goals Made 26.8 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.8 57.2
Field Goal % 45.5% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 29.4 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 60.3% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 29.4 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 30.8% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 12.1 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 16.7 20.7
Free Throw % 72.5% 74.3%
Ball Control BYU BSU
Rebounds 34.9 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 8.6
Turnovers 9.1 9.1
Blocked Shots 3.2 1.7
Steals 4.5 4.7
Fouls 16.2 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Boise St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BYU BSU
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.3 69.5
% of Possessions with BYU BSU
2 Point Attempt 37.2% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 37.2% 26.4%
Player Fouled 20.2% 23.1%
Turnover 13.0% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken BYU BSU
Shot Blocked 3.0% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 24.6%