NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHS ILL
Points 62.8 90.6
Total Points   153.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.7 47.0
Points From 3-Pointers 14.4 23.8
Points From Free Throws 12.6 19.8
Shooting CHS ILL
Field Goals Made 22.7 31.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.8 57.1
Field Goal % 37.3% 55.0%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 23.5
2 Pointers Attempted 44.4 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 40.3% 65.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.8 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 29.2% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 12.6 19.8
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 26.9
Free Throw % 70.5% 73.8%
Ball Control CHS ILL
Rebounds 27.0 43.7
Rebounds - Defensive 16.1 29.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 13.8
Turnovers 9.1 9.5
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.6
Steals 5.8 4.3
Fouls 17.9 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHS ILL
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 71.6 74.2
% of Possessions with CHS ILL
2 Point Attempt 53.9% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 20.0% 24.9%
Player Fouled 17.6% 25.7%
Turnover 13.1% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHS ILL
Shot Blocked 6.4% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 46.2%