NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COFC UNCW
Points 80.5 76.9
Total Points   157.4
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 39.5
Points From 3-Pointers 30.6 22.7
Points From Free Throws 13.0 14.7
Shooting COFC UNCW
Field Goals Made 28.7 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 59.5
Field Goal % 46.8% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 34.3 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 53.5%
3 Pointers Made 10.2 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 27.0 22.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 13.0 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.0 19.0
Free Throw % 72.3% 77.5%
Ball Control COFC UNCW
Rebounds 37.4 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 9.0
Turnovers 8.9 7.8
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.2
Steals 3.7 5.2
Fouls 14.9 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Col Charlestn

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COFC UNCW
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 70.9
% of Possessions with COFC UNCW
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 28.3%
Player Fouled 20.8% 21.4%
Turnover 12.7% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken COFC UNCW
Shot Blocked 3.8% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 33.6% 26.0%