NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HOU MEM
Points 83.5 61.5
Total Points   145.0
Points From 2-Pointers 39.2 24.5
Points From 3-Pointers 30.9 19.7
Points From Free Throws 13.5 17.3
Shooting HOU MEM
Field Goals Made 29.9 18.8
Field Goals Attempted 66.8 51.5
Field Goal % 44.7% 36.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 12.2
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 29.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 41.1%
3 Pointers Made 10.3 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 28.1 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 13.5 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 23.8
Free Throw % 71.1% 72.7%
Ball Control HOU MEM
Rebounds 41.9 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 22.7
Rebounds - Offensive 17.2 11.0
Turnovers 8.4 15.4
Blocked Shots 7.0 2.7
Steals 9.0 5.1
Fouls 16.8 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +1.0 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HOU MEM
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 79.2 65.9
% of Possessions with HOU MEM
2 Point Attempt 43.6% 35.4%
3 Point Attempt 31.7% 25.8%
Player Fouled 20.0% 23.9%
Turnover 12.0% 21.9%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 12.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken HOU MEM
Shot Blocked 5.4% 10.6%
Offensive Rebound 43.1% 30.7%