NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MCNS WIS
Points 70.3 76.1
Total Points   146.4
Points From 2-Pointers 36.3 31.2
Points From 3-Pointers 20.0 28.8
Points From Free Throws 14.0 16.1
Shooting MCNS WIS
Field Goals Made 24.8 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 53.2
Field Goal % 47.0% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 26.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 16.7 26.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.9% 36.4%
Free Throws Made 14.0 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.2 21.5
Free Throw % 69.1% 75.1%
Ball Control MCNS WIS
Rebounds 27.8 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.0 10.0
Turnovers 9.3 11.0
Blocked Shots 3.3 1.9
Steals 6.4 4.6
Fouls 18.8 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Wisconsin

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MCNS WIS
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 66.5
% of Possessions with MCNS WIS
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 34.0%
3 Point Attempt 22.2% 33.5%
Player Fouled 23.0% 27.8%
Turnover 13.7% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MCNS WIS
Shot Blocked 3.7% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.9% 32.5%