NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MCNS HCU
Points 90.6 62.2
Total Points   152.8
Points From 2-Pointers 52.5 31.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 17.6
Points From Free Throws 15.5 13.4
Shooting MCNS HCU
Field Goals Made 33.8 21.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.5 52.4
Field Goal % 54.1% 41.0%
2 Pointers Made 26.2 15.6
2 Pointers Attempted 43.5 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 60.3% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.0 19.2
3 Point Shooting % 39.7% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 15.5 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 20.9
Free Throw % 69.1% 64.1%
Ball Control MCNS HCU
Rebounds 36.6 31.2
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 21.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 9.9
Turnovers 7.1 16.3
Blocked Shots 5.2 1.8
Steals 10.7 3.5
Fouls 16.3 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Hsn Christian

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MCNS HCU
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 76.4 65.5
% of Possessions with MCNS HCU
2 Point Attempt 51.7% 39.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 22.9%
Player Fouled 19.8% 22.8%
Turnover 9.9% 22.7%
Opponent Steal 4.8% 14.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MCNS HCU
Shot Blocked 3.4% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 35.5% 28.5%