NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MCNS UNM
Points 70.2 78.2
Total Points   148.4
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 23.7
Points From Free Throws 15.3 15.2
Shooting MCNS UNM
Field Goals Made 24.3 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 59.8
Field Goal % 41.5% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 39.6 36.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 23.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 15.3 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 21.1
Free Throw % 69.1% 72.3%
Ball Control MCNS UNM
Rebounds 33.0 40.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 12.5
Turnovers 10.2 10.9
Blocked Shots 3.9 5.3
Steals 7.3 5.6
Fouls 16.5 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: New Mexico

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MCNS UNM
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 72.9
% of Possessions with MCNS UNM
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 42.2%
3 Point Attempt 22.6% 27.8%
Player Fouled 21.6% 23.2%
Turnover 14.2% 15.3%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 10.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MCNS UNM
Shot Blocked 9.1% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 35.3%