NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MCNS UNI
Points 71.5 69.0
Total Points   140.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 27.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 26.0
Points From Free Throws 14.2 15.9
Shooting MCNS UNI
Field Goals Made 25.0 22.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 50.3
Field Goal % 45.3% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 13.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 25.0
2 Point Shooting % 49.4% 54.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 25.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 14.2 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 22.5
Free Throw % 69.1% 70.8%
Ball Control MCNS UNI
Rebounds 32.5 33.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 25.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 7.7
Turnovers 8.9 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.6
Steals 7.9 4.5
Fouls 18.0 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Iowa

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MCNS UNI
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 64.0
% of Possessions with MCNS UNI
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 32.4%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 32.8%
Player Fouled 23.8% 26.5%
Turnover 13.1% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 11.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MCNS UNI
Shot Blocked 5.2% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.0% 24.3%