NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MCNS TENN
Points 63.2 78.6
Total Points   141.8
Points From 2-Pointers 26.8 27.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.6 34.4
Points From Free Throws 15.8 16.6
Shooting MCNS TENN
Field Goals Made 20.3 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 56.7
Field Goal % 36.2% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.4 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 24.9
2 Point Shooting % 37.9% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.6 31.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 15.8 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.9 22.0
Free Throw % 69.1% 75.4%
Ball Control MCNS TENN
Rebounds 31.9 42.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 12.6
Turnovers 10.3 11.1
Blocked Shots 1.9 4.9
Steals 7.3 5.4
Fouls 17.7 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Tennessee

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MCNS TENN
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 71.2
% of Possessions with MCNS TENN
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 30.0%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 38.3%
Player Fouled 22.6% 25.3%
Turnover 14.7% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 10.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MCNS TENN
Shot Blocked 8.8% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 36.5%