NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HARV HC
Points 74.6 64.7
Total Points   139.2
Points From 2-Pointers 32.8 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 26.6 23.6
Points From Free Throws 15.1 8.6
Shooting HARV HC
Field Goals Made 25.3 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 58.9
Field Goal % 45.5% 40.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 44.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 15.1 8.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 13.0
Free Throw % 69.8% 66.3%
Ball Control HARV HC
Rebounds 36.9 33.8
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 8.3
Turnovers 7.7 9.2
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.1
Steals 5.8 3.8
Fouls 11.3 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Harvard

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HARV HC
Total Possessions 67.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.9 66.5
% of Possessions with HARV HC
2 Point Attempt 42.5% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 28.7%
Player Fouled 23.1% 16.7%
Turnover 11.4% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken HARV HC
Shot Blocked 7.2% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 22.4%