NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HARV PENN
Points 72.0 72.1
Total Points   144.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 28.5
Points From Free Throws 13.0 10.2
Shooting HARV PENN
Field Goals Made 25.3 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 61.6
Field Goal % 44.8% 42.6%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 16.7
2 Pointers Attempted 31.7 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 48.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 24.8 26.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 13.0 10.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 14.5
Free Throw % 69.8% 70.2%
Ball Control HARV PENN
Rebounds 35.2 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 10.5
Turnovers 9.3 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.5
Steals 5.0 5.5
Fouls 11.8 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Harvard

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HARV PENN
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 70.5
% of Possessions with HARV PENN
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 42.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.8% 33.3%
Player Fouled 20.0% 17.1%
Turnover 13.5% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken HARV PENN
Shot Blocked 4.1% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.7% 27.9%