NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALA MSST
Points 83.7 79.4
Total Points   163.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 42.4
Points From 3-Pointers 31.8 20.1
Points From Free Throws 15.9 16.9
Shooting ALA MSST
Field Goals Made 28.6 27.9
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 60.8
Field Goal % 46.3% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 29.3 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 61.7% 55.1%
3 Pointers Made 10.6 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 32.6 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 30.0%
Free Throws Made 15.9 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 25.8
Free Throw % 76.4% 65.5%
Ball Control ALA MSST
Rebounds 36.8 36.8
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.5 12.6
Turnovers 11.7 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.3
Steals 6.3 8.1
Fouls 17.3 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Miss State

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALA MSST
Total Possessions 75.0
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 76.5
% of Possessions with ALA MSST
2 Point Attempt 33.3% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 37.1% 25.0%
Player Fouled 22.2% 23.1%
Turnover 15.6% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALA MSST
Shot Blocked 5.5% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 32.3% 33.3%