NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALA HOU
Points 72.3 80.8
Total Points   153.2
Points From 2-Pointers 24.4 41.8
Points From 3-Pointers 29.5 21.9
Points From Free Throws 18.4 17.2
Shooting ALA HOU
Field Goals Made 22.0 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.6 65.0
Field Goal % 39.7% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 12.2 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 26.4 42.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.2% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 29.1 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 18.4 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 24.1 24.1
Free Throw % 76.4% 71.1%
Ball Control ALA HOU
Rebounds 38.1 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.1 14.7
Turnovers 13.8 7.1
Blocked Shots 3.2 5.8
Steals 4.1 9.3
Fouls 15.9 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALA HOU
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 79.7
% of Possessions with ALA HOU
2 Point Attempt 30.6% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 33.7% 25.9%
Player Fouled 25.1% 22.0%
Turnover 19.1% 9.8%
Opponent Steal 12.9% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALA HOU
Shot Blocked 9.0% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 33.4% 36.0%