NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALA PSU
Points 87.4 78.4
Total Points   165.8
Points From 2-Pointers 42.1 37.0
Points From 3-Pointers 26.6 21.4
Points From Free Throws 18.7 20.0
Shooting ALA PSU
Field Goals Made 29.9 25.6
Field Goals Attempted 61.0 60.0
Field Goal % 49.0% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 21.1 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 37.2
2 Point Shooting % 61.2% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 26.6 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 18.7 20.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.5 26.7
Free Throw % 76.4% 74.9%
Ball Control ALA PSU
Rebounds 41.2 31.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 21.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 9.2
Turnovers 12.6 10.0
Blocked Shots 4.0 3.7
Steals 5.8 7.8
Fouls 18.3 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Penn St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALA PSU
Total Possessions 76.5
Effective Scoring Chances 76.4 75.7
% of Possessions with ALA PSU
2 Point Attempt 38.0% 42.5%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 26.2%
Player Fouled 23.4% 23.9%
Turnover 16.4% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALA PSU
Shot Blocked 6.3% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 36.5% 24.3%