NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALA ARK
Points 92.3 81.0
Total Points   173.3
Points From 2-Pointers 40.5 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 29.7 15.8
Points From Free Throws 22.1 24.2
Shooting ALA ARK
Field Goals Made 30.2 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 64.2 57.9
Field Goal % 47.0% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 20.3 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.4 40.0
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 9.9 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 26.7 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 29.3%
Free Throws Made 22.1 24.2
Free Throws Attempted 28.9 31.6
Free Throw % 76.4% 76.5%
Ball Control ALA ARK
Rebounds 40.5 33.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 8.3
Turnovers 10.3 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.8 5.5
Steals 5.9 6.3
Fouls 21.1 19.9

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALA ARK
Total Possessions 78.9
Effective Scoring Chances 81.1 76.6
% of Possessions with ALA ARK
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 45.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 20.3%
Player Fouled 25.2% 26.7%
Turnover 13.1% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALA ARK
Shot Blocked 9.6% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 33.5% 22.9%