NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALA MISS
Points 91.1 79.6
Total Points   170.7
Points From 2-Pointers 38.7 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 34.6 21.1
Points From Free Throws 17.8 18.3
Shooting ALA MISS
Field Goals Made 30.9 27.1
Field Goals Attempted 64.9 61.7
Field Goal % 47.6% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 20.1
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 40.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.8% 49.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 29.5 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 17.8 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.3 25.1
Free Throw % 76.4% 73.0%
Ball Control ALA MISS
Rebounds 42.0 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 14.5 10.9
Turnovers 10.9 9.4
Blocked Shots 3.5 5.6
Steals 5.7 7.5
Fouls 17.0 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALA MISS
Total Possessions 75.3
Effective Scoring Chances 78.9 76.8
% of Possessions with ALA MISS
2 Point Attempt 38.4% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.1% 24.1%
Player Fouled 21.6% 22.6%
Turnover 14.5% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 10.0% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALA MISS
Shot Blocked 9.3% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 39.8% 28.5%