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Valparaiso at Missouri St
Thu Jan 23, 2020
8:30pm ET
Springfield, MO
Valparaiso at Missouri St: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Missouri St. by 4.5, Total Points: 139
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | VALP | adv | MOSU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 18-13-0 | 17-15-1 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 12-9-0 | 10-12-0 | |
| Streak | L1 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 4-6-0 | 4-6-0 | |
| Home | 6-10-0 | 8-6-0 | |
| Away | 12-3-0 | 9-9-1 |
Valparaiso Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Trinity Christian | -- | W by 39 | -- |
| 11/10 | Home | IUPUI | -3.5 | L by 10 | -13.5 |
| 11/14 | Home | WI-Grn Bay | -3.5 | W by 5 | +1.5 |
| 11/17 | Away | Illinois | +29.5 | L by 23 | +6.5 |
| 11/21 | Home | W Illinois | -2.5 | W by 7 | +4.5 |
| 11/25 | Home | Southern | -3.0 | W by 12 | +9.0 |
| 11/29 | Home | Drake | +14.0 | L by 18 | -4.0 |
| 12/02 | Away | Belmont | +15.5 | L by 9 | +6.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | Central Mich | +3.5 | L by 4 | -0.5 |
| 12/09 | Away | VA Tech | +21.5 | L by 21 | +0.5 |
| 12/16 | Home | Chicago St | -3.0 | L by 1 | -4.0 |
| 12/19 | Home | Samford | +8.5 | L by 18 | -9.5 |
| 12/29 | Away | Elon | +5.0 | L by 4 | +1.0 |
| 01/03 | Home | Bradley | +10.5 | L by 25 | -14.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | IL-Chicago | +12.5 | L by 6 | +6.5 |
| 01/10 | Home | S Illinois | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
| 01/14 | Away | Illinois St | +10.0 | W by 9 | +19.0 |
| 01/17 | Away | Evansville | +7.0 | L by 3 | +4.0 |
| 01/20 | Home | IL-Chicago | +3.5 | W by 7 | +10.5 |
| 01/24 | Away | S Illinois | +13.5 | L by 6 | +7.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | Missouri St | +4.0 | L by 11 | -7.0 |
| 01/31 | Away | Drake | +19.5 | L by 11 | +8.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | Evansville | -1.5 | L by 1 | -2.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Indiana St | +20.5 | L by 40 | -19.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | Belmont | +6.5 | L by 18 | -11.5 |
| 02/14 | Home | N Iowa | +7.5 | L by 19 | -11.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Missouri St | +13.0 | L by 8 | +5.0 |
| 02/21 | Home | Indiana St | +14.0 | L by 19 | -5.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Murray St | +13.0 | L by 12 | +1.0 |
| 02/27 | Away | N Iowa | +16.0 | L by 14 | +2.0 |
| 03/03 | Home | Illinois St | +5.5 | W by 3 | +8.5 |
| 03/07 | Neutral | Belmont | +14.0 | L by 25 | -11.0 |
Missouri St Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Away | W Virginia | +4.0 | L by 8 | -4.0 |
| 11/13 | Home | Oral Roberts | -6.5 | W by 15 | +8.5 |
| 11/17 | Neutral | Fla Gulf Cst | +1.5 | W by 9 | +10.5 |
| 11/19 | Neutral | Kent St | +4.0 | W by 4 | +8.0 |
| 11/20 | Neutral | Abl Christian | -2.5 | W by 18 | +15.5 |
| 11/25 | Home | S Car State | -21.0 | W by 18 | -3.0 |
| 11/29 | Home | Evansville | -11.0 | W by 12 | +1.0 |
| 12/02 | Away | Drake | +7.5 | L by 17 | -9.5 |
| 12/05 | Away | Middle Tenn | -1.0 | L by 4 | -5.0 |
| 12/09 | Home | Sam Hous St | -7.0 | W by 9 | +2.0 |
| 12/16 | Away | Tulsa | +1.0 | L by 1 | 0.0 |
| 12/19 | Home | Lindenwood | -17.5 | W by 22 | +4.5 |
| 12/23 | Away | St Marys | +13.5 | W by 5 | +18.5 |
| 01/03 | Home | N Iowa | -1.5 | L by 2 | -3.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | Bradley | +4.5 | L by 26 | -21.5 |
| 01/10 | Home | Murray St | -5.0 | L by 24 | -29.0 |
| 01/13 | Away | Evansville | -4.0 | W by 10 | +6.0 |
| 01/16 | Away | Indiana St | +12.5 | L by 22 | -9.5 |
| 01/20 | Home | Illinois St | -6.5 | L by 9 | -15.5 |
| 01/24 | Home | Drake | +7.0 | W by 3 | +10.0 |
| 01/27 | Away | Valparaiso | -4.0 | W by 11 | +7.0 |
| 01/31 | Away | S Illinois | +4.5 | W by 1 | +5.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | Belmont | -6.0 | W by 7 | +1.0 |
| 02/07 | Away | N Iowa | +4.5 | L by 7 | -2.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | Indiana St | +7.5 | L by 2 | +5.5 |
| 02/14 | Away | Murray St | +3.5 | L by 10 | -6.5 |
| 02/17 | Home | Valparaiso | -13.0 | W by 8 | -5.0 |
| 02/21 | Home | Bradley | +3.0 | L by 24 | -21.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Belmont | +7.5 | L by 15 | -7.5 |
| 02/28 | Away | Illinois St | +4.5 | L by 1 | +3.5 |
| 03/03 | Home | IL-Chicago | -5.5 | W by 10 | +4.5 |
| 03/07 | Neutral | Murray St | +2.5 | W by 25 | +27.5 |
| 03/08 | Neutral | Indiana St | +11.5 | L by 16 | -4.5 |
| MOSU -4.5 | Open | -4.5 | High | -5.0 |
| Last | -4.0 | Low | -4.0 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2014-2015 NCAA Basketball season there have been 2980 games where the closing line favored the home team by 3.5 to 5.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Missouri St. won the game 1973 times (66.2%).
- The team like Valparaiso won the game 1007 times (33.8%).
- The team like Missouri St. did better against the spread, going 1504-1428-48 (51.3% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.2 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2016-2017 NCAA Basketball season there have been 3191 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by the same as the opening line.
In these games, the team like Valparaiso did better against the spread, going 1568-1563-60 (50.1% ATS).
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.0 |
| Open | -5.0 | -5.0 | -5.0 |
| History | |||
| 01/23 08:15 PM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 01/23 08:13 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 07:21 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 07:14 PM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 01/23 07:05 PM | -- | -- | -4.5 |
| 01/23 06:59 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 02:58 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 01:44 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 10:34 AM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 01/23 10:05 AM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 01/23 10:04 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 09:44 AM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 01/23 09:15 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 09:15 AM | -- | -- | -4.5 |
| 01/23 09:04 AM | -- | -5.0 | -- |
| 01/23 09:02 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 01/23 08:55 AM | -- | -- | -5.0 |
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