NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HC ARMY
Points 64.1 65.6
Total Points   129.7
Points From 2-Pointers 31.5 28.2
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 28.8
Points From Free Throws 9.6 8.5
Shooting HC ARMY
Field Goals Made 23.4 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 55.9
Field Goal % 43.8% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 30.3
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 25.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 9.6 8.5
Free Throws Attempted 14.5 14.2
Free Throw % 66.3% 60.0%
Ball Control HC ARMY
Rebounds 33.6 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 8.1
Turnovers 8.6 7.7
Blocked Shots 3.0 3.6
Steals 4.0 5.0
Fouls 13.2 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Army

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HC ARMY
Total Possessions 63.8
Effective Scoring Chances 61.7 64.2
% of Possessions with HC ARMY
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 35.0%
Player Fouled 20.2% 20.7%
Turnover 13.6% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken HC ARMY
Shot Blocked 6.5% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 20.2% 23.1%