NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HC FAIR
Points 67.8 80.3
Total Points   148.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 33.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.0 34.4
Points From Free Throws 8.0 12.6
Shooting HC FAIR
Field Goals Made 26.1 28.1
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 59.6
Field Goal % 47.4% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 16.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.9 32.7
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 26.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 42.7%
Free Throws Made 8.0 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 12.0 17.1
Free Throw % 66.3% 74.0%
Ball Control HC FAIR
Rebounds 32.4 32.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 8.2
Turnovers 11.3 6.0
Blocked Shots 2.6 1.9
Steals 3.0 7.7
Fouls 13.3 11.0

Playing Style Advantage: Holy Cross

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HC FAIR
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 62.8 69.5
% of Possessions with HC FAIR
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 35.1%
Player Fouled 16.4% 19.7%
Turnover 16.9% 8.9%
Opponent Steal 11.4% 4.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken HC FAIR
Shot Blocked 3.2% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 24.3%