NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HC USD
Points 67.8 78.2
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 36.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.8 26.7
Points From Free Throws 12.2 14.9
Shooting HC USD
Field Goals Made 24.0 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 58.4
Field Goal % 43.2% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 33.8 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.6% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 42.3%
Free Throws Made 12.2 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 20.7
Free Throw % 66.3% 72.1%
Ball Control HC USD
Rebounds 32.9 36.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 9.0
Turnovers 11.0 8.2
Blocked Shots 3.2 3.9
Steals 4.3 6.7
Fouls 14.9 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: San Diego

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HC USD
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 70.7
% of Possessions with HC USD
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 27.5% 26.3%
Player Fouled 20.8% 21.4%
Turnover 15.8% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken HC USD
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 26.1%