NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVSU ARPB
Points 66.1 77.5
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 28.2
Points From 3-Pointers 16.5 30.9
Points From Free Throws 11.9 18.4
Shooting MVSU ARPB
Field Goals Made 24.3 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 52.1
Field Goal % 41.4% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 14.1
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 26.5
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 25.6
3 Point Shooting % 28.1% 40.2%
Free Throws Made 11.9 18.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 24.6
Free Throw % 66.0% 75.0%
Ball Control MVSU ARPB
Rebounds 35.0 34.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.4 27.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 6.9
Turnovers 11.3 11.3
Blocked Shots 2.6 1.3
Steals 6.5 5.5
Fouls 16.5 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miss Val St

Expected Effect: +1.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVSU ARPB
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 66.9
% of Possessions with MVSU ARPB
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 33.4%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 32.3%
Player Fouled 20.9% 23.2%
Turnover 15.9% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MVSU ARPB
Shot Blocked 2.6% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 22.0%