NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVSU NORAL
Points 58.4 79.2
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 31.4 36.5
Points From 3-Pointers 12.6 23.8
Points From Free Throws 14.4 19.0
Shooting MVSU NORAL
Field Goals Made 19.9 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 53.1 54.0
Field Goal % 37.4% 48.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 39.3 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 39.9% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 4.2 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 13.8 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 40.4%
Free Throws Made 14.4 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 24.6
Free Throw % 66.0% 77.2%
Ball Control MVSU NORAL
Rebounds 30.2 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 9.4
Turnovers 11.2 9.4
Blocked Shots 2.5 3.3
Steals 5.1 5.8
Fouls 16.5 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miss Val St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVSU NORAL
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 69.0
% of Possessions with MVSU NORAL
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 17.5% 24.7%
Player Fouled 23.7% 23.8%
Turnover 16.3% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MVSU NORAL
Shot Blocked 6.1% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 30.2%