NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MVSU ARK
Points 52.6 85.5
Total Points   138.0
Points From 2-Pointers 27.9 41.3
Points From 3-Pointers 11.5 18.9
Points From Free Throws 13.2 25.2
Shooting MVSU ARK
Field Goals Made 17.8 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.7 50.1
Field Goal % 32.5% 53.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.0 20.7
2 Pointers Attempted 40.9 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 34.1% 61.8%
3 Pointers Made 3.8 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 13.8 16.7
3 Point Shooting % 27.7% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 13.2 25.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 32.9
Free Throw % 66.0% 76.5%
Ball Control MVSU ARK
Rebounds 27.6 40.4
Rebounds - Defensive 19.1 31.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 8.7
Turnovers 14.0 10.3
Blocked Shots 1.7 5.6
Steals 5.8 7.7
Fouls 19.9 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Miss Val St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MVSU ARK
Total Possessions 72.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 70.4
% of Possessions with MVSU ARK
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 16.7% 20.5%
Player Fouled 22.5% 27.7%
Turnover 19.5% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MVSU ARK
Shot Blocked 11.3% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 31.2%