NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WAKE NCST
Points 74.1 73.0
Total Points   147.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.9 39.7
Points From 3-Pointers 22.3 18.8
Points From Free Throws 14.8 14.5
Shooting WAKE NCST
Field Goals Made 25.9 26.1
Field Goals Attempted 56.7 58.8
Field Goal % 45.7% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 19.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 40.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 49.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.0 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 14.8 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.7 19.9
Free Throw % 79.2% 72.6%
Ball Control WAKE NCST
Rebounds 34.8 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 8.3
Turnovers 10.6 8.6
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.6
Steals 4.3 6.3
Fouls 14.2 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WAKE NCST
Total Possessions 70.7
Effective Scoring Chances 67.8 70.5
% of Possessions with WAKE NCST
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 50.0%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 23.1%
Player Fouled 21.9% 20.1%
Turnover 14.9% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken WAKE NCST
Shot Blocked 6.2% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 23.4%