NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JAC STET
Points 72.7 74.8
Total Points   147.6
Points From 2-Pointers 40.0 32.7
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 25.4
Points From Free Throws 12.3 16.7
Shooting JAC STET
Field Goals Made 26.8 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 52.4
Field Goal % 43.4% 47.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 16.3
2 Pointers Attempted 42.0 29.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 37.3%
Free Throws Made 12.3 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 22.2
Free Throw % 69.8% 75.1%
Ball Control JAC STET
Rebounds 37.2 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 14.3 7.9
Turnovers 9.0 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.8
Steals 6.0 5.0
Fouls 18.0 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Jacksonville

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JAC STET
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 66.0
% of Possessions with JAC STET
2 Point Attempt 50.4% 38.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.7% 29.7%
Player Fouled 19.9% 26.4%
Turnover 13.2% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 8.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken JAC STET
Shot Blocked 5.4% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 37.8% 25.6%