NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JAC XAV
Points 67.0 82.2
Total Points   149.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 40.7
Points From 3-Pointers 16.9 20.7
Points From Free Throws 13.1 20.8
Shooting JAC XAV
Field Goals Made 24.1 27.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 54.4
Field Goal % 40.3% 50.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 41.9 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.2% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 17.9 18.4
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 13.1 20.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 27.5
Free Throw % 69.8% 75.8%
Ball Control JAC XAV
Rebounds 32.6 37.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.9 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 10.1
Turnovers 11.5 10.5
Blocked Shots 3.3 3.4
Steals 6.2 6.7
Fouls 19.6 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JAC XAV
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.8 71.2
% of Possessions with JAC XAV
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.2% 22.1%
Player Fouled 20.2% 27.4%
Turnover 16.1% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken JAC XAV
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 32.6%