NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JAC UNCW
Points 68.2 78.1
Total Points   146.3
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.1 22.0
Points From Free Throws 13.9 19.3
Shooting JAC UNCW
Field Goals Made 24.0 25.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 53.9
Field Goal % 43.6% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 37.0 32.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 57.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 17.9 21.8
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 13.9 19.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 24.9
Free Throw % 69.8% 77.5%
Ball Control JAC UNCW
Rebounds 33.6 32.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.0 9.8
Turnovers 11.4 8.1
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.2
Steals 4.2 5.9
Fouls 18.7 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Wilmgton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JAC UNCW
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.1 69.2
% of Possessions with JAC UNCW
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 27.9%
Player Fouled 22.5% 27.7%
Turnover 16.9% 12.1%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken JAC UNCW
Shot Blocked 4.2% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 34.8% 31.2%