NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JAC MW
Points 64.3 66.5
Total Points   130.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 29.5
Points From 3-Pointers 14.7 21.3
Points From Free Throws 14.6 15.7
Shooting JAC MW
Field Goals Made 22.4 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 54.4 49.4
Field Goal % 41.1% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.5 14.8
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 27.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 15.3 21.7
3 Point Shooting % 32.2% 32.7%
Free Throws Made 14.6 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 21.0
Free Throw % 69.8% 74.8%
Ball Control JAC MW
Rebounds 40.6 25.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 19.9
Rebounds - Offensive 15.7 5.6
Turnovers 15.3 12.5
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.3
Steals 7.1 9.1
Fouls 17.9 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Merrimack

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JAC MW
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 62.1
% of Possessions with JAC MW
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 36.6%
3 Point Attempt 17.7% 28.7%
Player Fouled 21.3% 25.9%
Turnover 22.2% 18.2%
Opponent Steal 13.3% 10.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken JAC MW
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 44.1% 18.4%