NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORE ORST
Points 75.6 67.9
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 38.5 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 21.5 18.3
Points From Free Throws 15.6 13.8
Shooting ORE ORST
Field Goals Made 26.4 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 53.6
Field Goal % 46.1% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.2 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 21.7 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.0% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 15.6 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 18.8
Free Throw % 72.9% 73.5%
Ball Control ORE ORST
Rebounds 34.8 31.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.9 7.3
Turnovers 9.1 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.6
Steals 6.4 4.7
Fouls 16.0 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Oregon St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORE ORST
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 70.1 65.0
% of Possessions with ORE ORST
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 45.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 23.7%
Player Fouled 24.4% 23.1%
Turnover 13.1% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORE ORST
Shot Blocked 6.9% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 22.8%