NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JMU UVA
Points 63.0 64.7
Total Points   127.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.1 36.3
Points From 3-Pointers 21.4 17.4
Points From Free Throws 10.5 11.0
Shooting JMU UVA
Field Goals Made 22.7 24.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 56.6
Field Goal % 39.3% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 34.1 38.6
2 Point Shooting % 45.5% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 10.5 11.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 17.7
Free Throw % 69.7% 62.1%
Ball Control JMU UVA
Rebounds 37.9 35.5
Rebounds - Defensive 27.8 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 8.6
Turnovers 10.5 8.3
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.4
Steals 5.8 6.0
Fouls 13.4 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: James Mad

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JMU UVA
Total Possessions 66.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 67.2
% of Possessions with JMU UVA
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 50.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 23.5%
Player Fouled 17.8% 20.0%
Turnover 15.7% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken JMU UVA
Shot Blocked 9.7% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 27.4% 23.7%