NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring JMU CWM
Points 83.5 63.0
Total Points   146.6
Points From 2-Pointers 44.4 27.3
Points From 3-Pointers 23.3 21.5
Points From Free Throws 15.8 14.3
Shooting JMU CWM
Field Goals Made 30.0 20.8
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 54.6
Field Goal % 52.1% 38.1%
2 Pointers Made 22.2 13.7
2 Pointers Attempted 36.6 28.9
2 Point Shooting % 60.6% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 27.9%
Free Throws Made 15.8 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 21.1
Free Throw % 69.7% 67.7%
Ball Control JMU CWM
Rebounds 37.8 31.3
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 9.2
Turnovers 8.2 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.8 1.6
Steals 7.4 4.0
Fouls 15.9 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Wm & Mary

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats JMU CWM
Total Possessions 70.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.6 67.4
% of Possessions with JMU CWM
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 35.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 31.8%
Player Fouled 22.2% 22.7%
Turnover 11.7% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 10.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken JMU CWM
Shot Blocked 3.0% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 24.5%